Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds & Tips: Bet on the Wildcats at Home

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State odds

Oklahoma State looks to finish its October schedule gauntlet with flying colors as it heads to Manhattan to face a Kansas State team chasing a similar dream.

The Cowboys will play their fifth game of October on Saturday and boast an impressive 3-1 record against the Big 12’s top teams, with their only loss coming to undefeated TCU.

Kansas State, meanwhile, enjoyed a bye week before suffering the same fate against the Horned Frogs.

The Wildcats are now looking to bounce back at home, which may be easier said than done against one of the most experienced teams in the conference, plus injury concerns.

So far, both teams are 3-1 in conference play and hope to find their way back to a rematch against TCU in the Big 12 Championship. Neither has a particularly favorable schedule the rest of the way, but a win here would tie them as the clear second-place team in the conference.

Will the previous rest be enough for Kansas State to get the job done at home?

Senior quarterback Spencer Sanders has the Cowboys back among the nation’s best in offensive production. The Pokes rank fourth in the nation in points per game, averaging 44.7 points per contest.

And while Sanders may lead the conference in yards and yards per game, no quarterback has been worse in completion percentage. Despite his inaccuracy, he only made four tackles on the season, but I’m not sure how much longer he can keep that up.

The Pokes defense appears to have an edge over the Wildcats on paper, as they rank 42nd in pass defense and 22nd in Standard Down EPA/Play Allowed.

But Oklahoma State has some concerns that can’t be ignored.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, their passing defense — their biggest weakness, which ranks 127th out of 131 teams — shouldn’t play a role too often against a Wildcats offense that rushes the ball on 63.3% of plays.

Only 10 teams in the country run the ball more than the Wildcats, and that number could be even lower after this week.

Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez, who is having a comeback season in his fifth year after transferring from Nebraska, is currently questionable for the Oklahoma State game with an injury.

That leaves the door open for quarterback Will Howard, who did well against TCU, posting 225 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception on 65% completion.

Losing your starting quarterback is never ideal, but it becomes much less of an issue when this team has one of the best offensive linemen in the country in the backfield.

Deuce Vaughn ranks second in the Big 12 with 744 yards and four scores on the ground while adding 112 yards on 19 receptions through the air.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats are more than equipped to counter the second-best passing offense in the Big 12. Kansas State is third in the conference in pass defense, holding opponents to just 230 yards per game and completion percentage. only 55.9%.

They have also pulled off five interceptions so far this season.

The Cats’ red zone defense was a problem as they allowed opponents to score on 87.5% of trips inside the 20. But the Pokes were even worse in that area, giving up scores on 88.5% of opportunities.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdown below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Kansas match up statistically:

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

Pace of play / other
PFF solution 96 26
PFF Coverage 80 30
SP+ special teams 15 74
Seconds to play 20.9 (4) 28.0 (98)
Rush speed 48.8% (94) 63.3% (11)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Betting Tip

Oklahoma State’s loss to TCU came from its inability to stop the run. Texas also ran the ball at will against the Pokes last week, but the Cowboys dug deep and pulled out a comeback win.

The Wildcats boast the top rushing attack in the Big 12, averaging 232 yards per game. Plus, they have the second-leading rusher in the conference in Vaughn. That’s why I don’t really care about Martinez’s status at quarterback.

Kansas State saw how successful the run can be against the Pokes and I expect them to lean heavily into this game plan.

Yes, Sanders is great. The Cowboys are an experienced team, but the clock strikes midnight every day and regression comes at one point or another for everyone.

Kansas State boasts the top three pass defenses in the Big 12, and while its ability to stop the run is lacking, the Pokes’ run game is averaging just 153.7 yards per outing and isn’t much of a threat.

I’d rather not have a missed PAT decide the outcome of this bet, so I’ll be as low as -125 on the Kansas State moneyline.

The money line bet is also due to the fact that after opening as a 3-point underdog, the Wildcats have moved up to a 1.5-point favorite at some books.

Make sure you shop around to get the best possible number, but I’d only bet the Wildcats at -2.5 (-115).


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