I’ll be breaking down a few of the biggest games in college football each week this season and giving away at least one bet I like from each game.
Let’s take a look at this week’s Big 12 battle between Oklahoma State and Kansas State, where the winner will gain a significant advantage and earn a trip to the conference title game.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Spread, Current Line:
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Best Bet Prediction:
Always trust Mike Gundy in a tight game 一 take points and bet Oklahoma State against the spread in the state of Kansas.
» Bet now: Oklahoma State +1.5
When Oklahoma State is on offense
Oklahoma State relies on its passing game with a 56% pass rate in neutral situations per Campus2Canton.
The spread of the game is due in part to the offensive line struggling to create running lanes. According to Sports Info Solutions, Oklahoma State ranks 129th in opponent adjusted rushing yards before contact.
Kansas State’s defense ranks 22nd in opponent adjusted yards before contact allowed, so expect Oklahoma State to lean more on the passing game in this game.
The strength of Oklahoma State’s passing game is its ability to produce after the catch.
Excluding screens and jet sweeps, Oklahoma State racks up 6.1 yards per catch, 25th. Kansas State’s defense ranks 68th, allowing 5.1 YAC per reception, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Oklahoma State doesn’t throw the ball downfield at a high rate — just 22%. At Spencer Sanders attempts were 15 or more yards down the field. However, Sanders could be more aggressive in this matchup.
Opposing quarterbacks don’t respect Kansas State’s secondary, throwing down 11% more than expected, which is 95th in the FBS.
When Kansas State is on offense
Kansas State is an extremely run offense, only throwing the ball on 39.5% of neutral-site plays to Campus2Canton.
Oklahoma State likes to box against the run, which could cost Kansas problems. The Cowboys stacked box rate is 39% higher than expected based on the average number of their opponents, which is the 16th highest stacked box rate in the country according to Sports Info Solutions.
With the box stacked, Oklahoma State is allowing 3.5 yards per attempt, 28th in the nation.
Oklahoma State also creates contact in the backfield on 55% of their stacked box rush attempts, the 11th-highest number. This should concern the State of Kansas, Inc Deuce Vaughn is averaging 0.6 yards per attempt on contact at or behind the line of scrimmage 一 ranked 48th out of 58 qualified running backs.
Vaughn had a nice game against TCU last week, but TCU ranks last in adjusted stacked box ratio and only stacked the box once against Vaughn.
The key to this game will be the health of the quarterback Adrian Martinezwho played just one series against TCU last week.
Kansas State released limited information on Martinez, other than that it was a lower-body injury that will not end his season.
Without Martinez, Kansas State’s offense will change dramatically because of the backup Will Howardlack of mobility. And even if Martinez plays at less than 100%, the offense can look different if his mobility is limited.
Kansas State ranks 123rd in opponent-adjusted pressure allowed according to Sports Info Solutions 一 and a mobile quarterback is critical to success behind such a shaky offensive line.
Howard’s lack of mobility wasn’t an issue last week against TCU, but the Frogs ranked 95th in pressure rating 一 Oklahoma State at 38th.
Final thoughts on Oklahoma State vs Kansas State best bets
Mike Gundy always has his team ready for close games. Over the last 10 seasons, Oklahoma State is 15-6 against the spread when the spread is a field goal or less.
Additionally, Gundy’s team has won five straight games as a field goal underdog or less.
This is a great place to bet on Oklahoma State, especially with Martinez bumped or potentially on the sidelines.