BY: THE WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) – The system known as “Potential Tropical Cyclone 15” is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia on Monday. The system south of Florida is expected to remain on a westerly course, making a direct hit on Florida unlikely.
This is a 5 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. We have combined the recommendations into one report:
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS
Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8 N 74.9 W at 31/0300 UTC or 170 nm SE of Kingston, Jamaica and is moving W at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Scattered mild convection is evident up to 75 nm from the center. Recent ASCAT satellite scatterometer and altimeter data reveal the strongest easterly to southeasterly winds and seas of 9 to 11 feet are up to 120 nm north and southeast of the center, south of Haiti. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm by Monday. It will continue on a general westerly track with little change in forward speed for the next few days.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 15.8N and 76.1W. The system is moving west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to move west to west-northwest over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the system could approach hurricane strength by Wednesday.
- Chance of creation within 48 hours… high… 90 percent.
- Chance of creation within 5 days…high…90 percent.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 in).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND: Tropical storms are possible in the Jamaica watch area beginning today, and Grand Cayman is possible on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: By Thursday morning, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with localized rainfall of 2 inches across parts of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected in Jamaica and Belize, with localized totals of 6 inches in Belize. This rainfall could lead to flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next few days.
These swells can cause life-threatening surf and disrupt current conditions. Check with your local weather office for products.
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